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Democrata SL vs Tupi — Mineiro - 2 2026

Democrata SL
Democrata SL
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tupi
Tupi
5/25/2022Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Democrata SL51%
×Draw28%
Tupi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata SL
1.33
Tupi
0.73

Democrata SL creates 82% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

creates per match

Democrata SL
1.27
Tupi
0.80

allows per match

Democrata SL
0.65
Tupi
1.40

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par
Tupi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

Tupi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw
79%
Democrata SL or Tupi
72%
Draw or Tupi
49%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+
24%
Tupi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals
74%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
38%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
15%
Tupi 1+ goals
52%
Tupi 2+ goals
17%
Tupi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)
71%
Tupi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Tupi away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + Tupi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tupi attack 0.80 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Democrata SL scores more
51%
level
28%
Tupi scores more
21%

Democrata SL at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Democrata SL vs Tupi

Democrata SL beat Tupi 3-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Arena do Jacaré in Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais.