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Democrata SL vs Democrata GV — Mineiro - 2 2026

Democrata SL
Democrata SL
FT
1 – 1
Democrata GV
Democrata GV
8/28/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 11Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Democrata SL49%
×Draw32%
Democrata GV20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata SL
1.14
Democrata GV
0.61

Democrata SL creates 87% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 14 away

creates per match

Democrata SL
1.27
Democrata GV
0.57

allows per match

Democrata SL
0.65
Democrata GV
1.00

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par
Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

Democrata GV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw
80%
Democrata SL or Democrata GV
68%
Draw or Democrata GV
51%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+
21%
Democrata GV wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals
68%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
32%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
11%
Democrata GV 1+ goals
46%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
13%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)
71%
Democrata GV (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + Democrata GV defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Democrata GV attack 0.57 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Democrata SL scores more
49%
level
32%
Democrata GV scores more
20%

Democrata SL at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Democrata SL vs Democrata GV

Democrata SL and Democrata GV drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Arena do Jacaré in Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais.