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Democrata SL vs CAP Uberlândia — Mineiro - 2 2020

Democrata SL
Democrata SL
FT
2 – 2
CAP Uberlândia
CAP Uberlândia
2/15/2020Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 2Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Democrata SL51%
×Draw30%
CAP Uberlândia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata SL
1.23
CAP Uberlândia
0.63

Democrata SL creates 95% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 5 away

creates per match

Democrata SL
1.27
CAP Uberlândia
0.60

allows per match

Democrata SL
0.65
CAP Uberlândia
1.20

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par
CAP Uberlândia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

CAP Uberlândia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw
81%
Democrata SL or CAP Uberlândia
70%
Draw or CAP Uberlândia
49%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+
23%
CAP Uberlândia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals
71%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
35%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
13%
CAP Uberlândia 1+ goals
47%
CAP Uberlândia 2+ goals
13%
CAP Uberlândia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)
73%
CAP Uberlândia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

CAP Uberlândia away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + CAP Uberlândia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

CAP Uberlândia attack 0.60 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Democrata SL scores more
51%
level
30%
CAP Uberlândia scores more
19%

Democrata SL at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Democrata SL vs CAP Uberlândia

Democrata SL and CAP Uberlândia drew 2-2 in Mineiro - 2 on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Arena do Jacaré in Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais.