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Democrata SL vs CAP — Mineiro - 1 2020

Democrata SL
Democrata SL
CANC
22:00
CAP
CAP
4/8/2023Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Relegation Round - 6Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Democrata SL46%
×Draw29%
CAP25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata SL
1.27
CAP
0.84

Democrata SL creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

creates per match

Democrata SL
0.80
CAP
0.68

allows per match

Democrata SL
1.00
CAP
1.75

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw
75%
Democrata SL or CAP
71%
Draw or CAP
54%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+
21%
CAP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals
72%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
36%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
14%
CAP 1+ goals
57%
CAP 2+ goals
21%
CAP 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)
65%
CAP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

CAP away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 0.80 + CAP defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

CAP attack 0.68 + Democrata SL defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Democrata SL scores more
46%
level
29%
CAP scores more
25%

Democrata SL at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Democrata SL vs CAP — Match Preview

Democrata SL face CAP on April 8, 2023 in this Mineiro - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Democrata SL host CAP at Arena do Jacaré.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.