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Democrata GV vs Uniao Luziense — Mineiro - 2 2026

Democrata GV
Democrata GV
FT
2 – 1
Uniao Luziense
Uniao Luziense
7/17/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio José Mammoud Abbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Democrata GV61%
×Draw25%
Uniao Luziense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata GV
1.56
Uniao Luziense
0.59

Democrata GV creates 164% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Democrata GV
1.50
Uniao Luziense
0.69

allows per match

Democrata GV
0.50
Uniao Luziense
1.63

finishing

Democrata GV+0.00on par
Uniao Luziense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 65Yes: 3565%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata GV ↓

Uniao Luziense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Democrata GV or draw
86%
Democrata GV or Uniao Luziense
75%
Draw or Uniao Luziense
39%

Winning margin

Democrata GV wins by 2+
33%
Uniao Luziense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Democrata GV 1+ goals
79%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
46%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
21%
Uniao Luziense 1+ goals
45%
Uniao Luziense 2+ goals
12%
Uniao Luziense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Democrata GV (draw refunded)
81%
Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata GV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Uniao Luziense away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata GV attack 1.50 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Uniao Luziense attack 0.69 + Democrata GV defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Democrata GV scores more
61%
level
25%
Uniao Luziense scores more
14%

Democrata GV at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Democrata GV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Democrata GV 2–1 Uniao Luziense

Democrata GV beat Uniao Luziense 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Mammoud Abbas in Governador Valadares, Minas Gerais.