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Democrata GV vs Tombense — Mineiro - 1 2020

Democrata GV
Democrata GV
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tombense
Tombense
1/26/2025Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio José Mammoud Abbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Democrata GV34%
×Draw29%
Tombense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata GV
1.10
Tombense
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

Democrata GV
1.00
Tombense
1.12

allows per match

Democrata GV
1.19
Tombense
1.21

finishing

Democrata GV+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata GV ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Democrata GV or draw
63%
Democrata GV or Tombense
71%
Draw or Tombense
66%

Winning margin

Democrata GV wins by 2+
14%
Tombense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Democrata GV 1+ goals
67%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
30%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
10%
Tombense 1+ goals
69%
Tombense 2+ goals
32%
Tombense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Democrata GV (draw refunded)
48%
Tombense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata GV at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Tombense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata GV attack 1.00 + Tombense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tombense attack 1.12 + Democrata GV defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Democrata GV scores more
34%
level
29%
Tombense scores more
37%

Tombense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Democrata GV vs Tombense

Tombense beat Democrata GV 1-0 in Mineiro - 1 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio José Mammoud Abbas in Governador Valadares, Minas Gerais.