Democrata GV 2–0 Nacional AC MG: Result & Stats

Democrata GV

FT

2 – 0

Nacional AC MG

9/27/2021

Mineiro - 2 · Quadrangular Final - 5Estádio José Mammoud Abbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Democrata GV49%

×Draw29%

Nacional AC MG22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Democrata GVExpected goals in this matchNacional AC MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.77

Democrata GV

1.31

Nacional AC MG

0.77

Democrata GV creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

1.50

creates per match

1.03

0.50

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Democrata GV

1.50

Nacional AC MG

1.03

allows per match

Democrata GV

0.50

Nacional AC MG

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata GV ↓

Nacional AC MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Democrata GV or draw

78%

Democrata GV or Nacional AC MG

71%

Draw or Nacional AC MG

51%

Winning margin

Democrata GV wins by 2+

23%

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Democrata GV 1+ goals

73%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

38%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

14%

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals

54%

Nacional AC MG 2+ goals

18%

Nacional AC MG 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

69%

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata GV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata GV attack 1.50 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Democrata GV defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Democrata GV scores more

49%

level

29%

Nacional AC MG scores more

22%

Democrata GV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Democrata GV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff