Democrata GV 2–0 Guarani MG: Result & Stats

Democrata GV

FT

2 – 0

Guarani MG

8/23/2021

Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio José Mammoud Abbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Democrata GV51%

×Draw29%

Guarani MG20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Democrata GVExpected goals in this matchGuarani MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.72

Democrata GV

1.32

Guarani MG

0.72

Democrata GV creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.50

creates per match

0.95

0.50

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Democrata GV

1.50

Guarani MG

0.95

allows per match

Democrata GV

0.50

Guarani MG

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata GV ↓

Guarani MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Democrata GV or draw

80%

Democrata GV or Guarani MG

71%

Draw or Guarani MG

49%

Winning margin

Democrata GV wins by 2+

24%

Guarani MG wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Democrata GV 1+ goals

73%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

38%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

15%

Guarani MG 1+ goals

51%

Guarani MG 2+ goals

16%

Guarani MG 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

71%

Guarani MG (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata GV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata GV attack 1.50 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Democrata GV defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Democrata GV scores more

51%

level

29%

Guarani MG scores more

20%

Democrata GV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Democrata GV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff