Dembava 1–3 Neptūną Klaipėda: Result & Stats | Cup

Dembava

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Neptūną Klaipėda

4/14/2025

Cup · 1st RoundŽemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dembava5%

×Draw7%

Neptūną Klaipėda88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DembavaExpected goals in this matchNeptūną Klaipėda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

4.83

Dembava

1.25

Neptūną Klaipėda

4.83

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 286% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

5.33

4.33

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Dembava

1.33

Neptūną Klaipėda

5.33

allows per match

Dembava

4.33

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dembava+0.00on par

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dembava ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–35%

0–47%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Dembava or draw

12%

Dembava or Neptūną Klaipėda

93%

Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda

95%

Winning margin

Dembava wins by 2+

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

75%

Team goals

Dembava 1+ goals

71%

Dembava 2+ goals

36%

Dembava 3+ goals

13%

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

99%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

94%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

82%

Draw no bet

Dembava (draw refunded)

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dembava at home — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 5.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dembava attack 1.33 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 5.33 + Dembava defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Dembava scores more

level

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

88%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff