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Dembava vs Kauno Žalgiris — Cup 2020

Dembava
Dembava
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgirisadvanced
5/8/2023CupCup · Round of 32Pasvalio miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dembava4%
×Draw7%
Kauno Žalgiris89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dembava
0.78
Kauno Žalgiris
4.01

Kauno Žalgiris creates 414% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dembava
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
3.69

allows per match

Dembava
4.33
Kauno Žalgiris
0.23

finishing

Dembava+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dembava ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Dembava or draw
11%
Dembava or Kauno Žalgiris
93%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
96%

Winning margin

Dembava wins by 2+
1%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

Dembava 1+ goals
54%
Dembava 2+ goals
18%
Dembava 3+ goals
4%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
98%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
90%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Dembava (draw refunded)
4%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dembava at home — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 3.69, concedes 0.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dembava attack 1.33 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.23 → ÷2 → 0.78

Kauno Žalgiris attack 3.69 + Dembava defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Dembava scores more
4%
level
7%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
89%

Kauno Žalgiris at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dembava 0–6 Kauno Žalgiris

Kauno Žalgiris beat Dembava 6-0 in Cup on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Pasvalio miesto stadionas in Pasvalys.