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Dembava vs Babrungas — Cup 2020

Dembava
Dembava
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Babrungas
Babrungasadvanced
5/5/2024CupCup · Round of 32Pasvalio miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dembava4%
×Draw7%
Babrungas89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dembava
0.94
Babrungas
4.39

Babrungas creates 367% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dembava
1.33
Babrungas
4.45

allows per match

Dembava
4.33
Babrungas
0.55

finishing

Dembava+0.00on par
Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dembava ↓

Babrungas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Dembava or draw
11%
Dembava or Babrungas
93%
Draw or Babrungas
96%

Winning margin

Dembava wins by 2+
1%
Babrungas wins by 2+
77%

Team goals

Dembava 1+ goals
61%
Dembava 2+ goals
24%
Dembava 3+ goals
7%
Babrungas 1+ goals
99%
Babrungas 2+ goals
92%
Babrungas 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Dembava (draw refunded)
4%
Babrungas (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dembava at home — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Babrungas away — creates 4.45, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dembava attack 1.33 + Babrungas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.94

Babrungas attack 4.45 + Dembava defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Dembava scores more
4%
level
7%
Babrungas scores more
89%

Babrungas at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Babrungas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dembava 3–4 Babrungas

Babrungas beat Dembava 4-3 in Cup on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Pasvalio miesto stadionas in Pasvalys.