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DEM vs Westlandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
CANC
00:00
Westlandia
Westlandia
4/18/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 30Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

DEM51%
×Draw22%
Westlandia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.90
Westlandia
1.33

DEM creates 43% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 32 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
Westlandia
1.09

allows per match

DEM
1.57
Westlandia
2.25

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Westlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

DEM or draw
73%
DEM or Westlandia
78%
Draw or Westlandia
49%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
29%
Westlandia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
85%
DEM 2+ goals
56%
DEM 3+ goals
29%
Westlandia 1+ goals
74%
Westlandia 2+ goals
38%
Westlandia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
65%
Westlandia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Westlandia attack 1.09 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

DEM scores more
51%
level
22%
Westlandia scores more
27%

DEM at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: DEM host Westlandia

April 18, 2020: DEM take on Westlandia in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

DEM host Westlandia at Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.