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DEM vs Vvsb — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Vvsb
Vvsb
11/12/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 14Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

DEM35%
×Draw23%
Vvsb42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.59
Vvsb
1.75

Vvsb creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
Vvsb
1.94

allows per match

DEM
1.57
Vvsb
1.63

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Vvsb+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Vvsb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

DEM or draw
58%
DEM or Vvsb
77%
Draw or Vvsb
65%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
17%
Vvsb wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
80%
DEM 2+ goals
47%
DEM 3+ goals
21%
Vvsb 1+ goals
83%
Vvsb 2+ goals
52%
Vvsb 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
46%
Vvsb (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Vvsb away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Vvsb defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Vvsb attack 1.94 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

DEM scores more
35%
level
23%
Vvsb scores more
42%

Vvsb at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs Vvsb

Vvsb beat DEM 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.