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DEM vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
5/3/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 31Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM31%
×Draw22%
Sparta Nijkerk47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.51
Sparta Nijkerk
1.89

Sparta Nijkerk creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 97 away

creates per match

DEM
1.44
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

DEM
1.91
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

DEM or draw
53%
DEM or Sparta Nijkerk
78%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
69%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
14%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
78%
DEM 2+ goals
44%
DEM 3+ goals
19%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
85%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
56%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
40%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.44 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + DEM defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

DEM scores more
31%
level
22%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
47%

Sparta Nijkerk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs Sparta Nijkerk

DEM beat Sparta Nijkerk 4-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.