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DEM vs SC Genemuiden — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
10/14/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 9Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM29%
×Draw23%
SC Genemuiden47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.36
SC Genemuiden
1.78

SC Genemuiden creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

DEM
1.44
SC Genemuiden
1.65

allows per match

DEM
1.91
SC Genemuiden
1.29

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

SC Genemuiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

DEM or draw
53%
DEM or SC Genemuiden
77%
Draw or SC Genemuiden
71%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
13%
SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
74%
DEM 2+ goals
39%
DEM 3+ goals
16%
SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
83%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
53%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
38%
SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

SC Genemuiden away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.44 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

SC Genemuiden attack 1.65 + DEM defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

DEM scores more
29%
level
23%
SC Genemuiden scores more
47%

SC Genemuiden at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: DEM 2–1 SC Genemuiden

DEM beat SC Genemuiden 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.