Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

DEM vs ROHDA Raalte — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ROHDA Raalte
ROHDA Raalte
3/22/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 27Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM32%
×Draw23%
ROHDA Raalte45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.53
ROHDA Raalte
1.85

ROHDA Raalte creates 21% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

DEM
1.44
ROHDA Raalte
1.79

allows per match

DEM
1.91
ROHDA Raalte
1.62

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
ROHDA Raalte+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

ROHDA Raalte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

DEM or draw
55%
DEM or ROHDA Raalte
77%
Draw or ROHDA Raalte
68%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
15%
ROHDA Raalte wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
78%
DEM 2+ goals
45%
DEM 3+ goals
20%
ROHDA Raalte 1+ goals
84%
ROHDA Raalte 2+ goals
55%
ROHDA Raalte 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
42%
ROHDA Raalte (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

ROHDA Raalte away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.44 + ROHDA Raalte defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

ROHDA Raalte attack 1.79 + DEM defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

DEM scores more
32%
level
23%
ROHDA Raalte scores more
45%

ROHDA Raalte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ROHDA Raalte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs ROHDA Raalte

ROHDA Raalte beat DEM 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.