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DEM vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
OSS '20
OSS '20
5/26/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 32Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

DEM40%
×Draw24%
OSS '2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.60
OSS '20
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 65 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

DEM
1.57
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

DEM or draw
64%
DEM or OSS '20
76%
Draw or OSS '20
60%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
20%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
80%
DEM 2+ goals
47%
DEM 3+ goals
22%
OSS '20 1+ goals
78%
OSS '20 2+ goals
45%
OSS '20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
52%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

DEM scores more
40%
level
24%
OSS '20 scores more
36%

DEM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: DEM 0–0 OSS '20

DEM and OSS '20 drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.