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DEM vs Kampong — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kampong
Kampong
11/4/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 11Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

DEM44%
×Draw22%
Kampong35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.98
Kampong
1.75

DEM creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

DEM
1.44
Kampong
1.59

allows per match

DEM
1.91
Kampong
2.53

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Kampong+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Kampong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

DEM or draw
65%
DEM or Kampong
78%
Draw or Kampong
56%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
24%
Kampong wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
86%
DEM 2+ goals
59%
DEM 3+ goals
31%
Kampong 1+ goals
83%
Kampong 2+ goals
52%
Kampong 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
56%
Kampong (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

Kampong away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.44 + Kampong defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kampong attack 1.59 + DEM defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

DEM scores more
44%
level
22%
Kampong scores more
35%

DEM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: DEM 0–0 Kampong

DEM and Kampong drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.