Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

DEM vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
4 – 1
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
9/15/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 4Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

DEM41%
×Draw25%
Hsc 2134%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.54
Hsc 21
1.37

DEM creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
Hsc 21
1.17

allows per match

DEM
1.57
Hsc 21
1.52

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

DEM or draw
66%
DEM or Hsc 21
75%
Draw or Hsc 21
59%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
20%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
79%
DEM 2+ goals
45%
DEM 3+ goals
20%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
75%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
40%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
55%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Hsc 21 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hsc 21 attack 1.17 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

DEM scores more
41%
level
25%
Hsc 21 scores more
34%

DEM at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: DEM 4–1 Hsc 21

DEM beat Hsc 21 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk).