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DEM vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
1/11/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 18Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM33%
×Draw23%
Harkemase Boys44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.52
Harkemase Boys
1.79

Harkemase Boys creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

creates per match

DEM
1.44
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

DEM
1.91
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

DEM or draw
56%
DEM or Harkemase Boys
77%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
67%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
15%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
78%
DEM 2+ goals
45%
DEM 3+ goals
20%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
83%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
53%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
43%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.44 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + DEM defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

DEM scores more
33%
level
23%
Harkemase Boys scores more
44%

Harkemase Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs Harkemase Boys

Harkemase Boys beat DEM 5-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.