DEM 2–0 Groene Ster: Result & Stats

DEM

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Groene Ster

3/26/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 26Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

DEM48%

×Draw24%

Groene Ster28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DEMExpected goals in this matchGroene Ster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

DEM

1.69

Groene Ster

1.25

DEM creates 35% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 81 away

1.55

creates per match

0.94

1.57

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

DEM

1.55

Groene Ster

0.94

allows per match

DEM

1.57

Groene Ster

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

DEM+0.00on par

Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Groene Ster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

DEM or draw

72%

DEM or Groene Ster

76%

Draw or Groene Ster

52%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+

25%

Groene Ster wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals

82%

DEM 2+ goals

50%

DEM 3+ goals

24%

Groene Ster 1+ goals

71%

Groene Ster 2+ goals

36%

Groene Ster 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)

63%

Groene Ster (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

DEM scores more

48%

level

24%

Groene Ster scores more

28%

DEM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff