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DEM vs FC Lienden — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
CANC
00:00
FC Lienden
FC Lienden
4/13/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 21Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

DEM52%
×Draw23%
FC Lienden25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.83
FC Lienden
1.18

DEM creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 9 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
FC Lienden
0.78

allows per match

DEM
1.57
FC Lienden
2.11

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
FC Lienden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

FC Lienden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

DEM or draw
75%
DEM or FC Lienden
77%
Draw or FC Lienden
48%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
29%
FC Lienden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
84%
DEM 2+ goals
54%
DEM 3+ goals
28%
FC Lienden 1+ goals
69%
FC Lienden 2+ goals
33%
FC Lienden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
68%
FC Lienden (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

FC Lienden away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + FC Lienden defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Lienden attack 0.78 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

DEM scores more
52%
level
23%
FC Lienden scores more
25%

DEM at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DEM vs FC Lienden — Match Preview

DEM face FC Lienden on April 13, 2020 in this Derde Divisie - Sunday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

DEM host FC Lienden at Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.