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Delta Porto Tolle vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
PST
00:00
Villafranca
Villafranca
2/23/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 28Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle41%
×Draw25%
Villafranca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.46
Villafranca
1.31

Delta Porto Tolle creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
66%
Delta Porto Tolle or Villafranca
75%
Draw or Villafranca
59%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
20%
Villafranca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
77%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
43%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
18%
Villafranca 1+ goals
73%
Villafranca 2+ goals
38%
Villafranca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
55%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
41%
level
25%
Villafranca scores more
34%

Delta Porto Tolle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Delta Porto Tolle host Villafranca

February 23, 2020: Delta Porto Tolle take on Villafranca in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Delta Porto Tolle host Villafranca at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.