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Delta Porto Tolle vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
1 – 1
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
11/17/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 14Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle28%
×Draw23%
Union Feltre48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.30
Union Feltre
1.77

Union Feltre creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
52%
Delta Porto Tolle or Union Feltre
77%
Draw or Union Feltre
72%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
12%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
73%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
37%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
14%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
83%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
53%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
37%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
28%
level
23%
Union Feltre scores more
48%

Union Feltre at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Delta Porto Tolle 1 – 1 Union Feltre

Delta Porto Tolle and Union Feltre drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle).