Delta Porto Tolle 3–1 Spinea: Result & Stats

Delta Porto Tolle

FT

3 – 1

Spinea

9/19/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle44%

×Draw24%

Spinea32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delta Porto TolleExpected goals in this matchSpinea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.33

Delta Porto Tolle

1.61

Spinea

1.33

Delta Porto Tolle creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.12

1.55

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle

1.29

Spinea

1.12

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle

1.55

Spinea

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Spinea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Spinea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw

68%

Delta Porto Tolle or Spinea

76%

Draw or Spinea

56%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

22%

Spinea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

80%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

48%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

22%

Spinea 1+ goals

74%

Spinea 2+ goals

38%

Spinea 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

58%

Spinea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Spinea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Spinea defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Spinea attack 1.12 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

44%

level

24%

Spinea scores more

32%

Delta Porto Tolle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff