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Delta Porto Tolle vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
1 – 3
Mestre
Mestre
11/3/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 12Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle36%
×Draw27%
Mestre37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.24
Mestre
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
63%
Delta Porto Tolle or Mestre
73%
Draw or Mestre
64%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
16%
Mestre wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
71%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
35%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
13%
Mestre 1+ goals
71%
Mestre 2+ goals
36%
Mestre 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
50%
Mestre (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mestre attack 0.94 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
36%
level
27%
Mestre scores more
37%

Mestre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Delta Porto Tolle 1 – 3 Mestre

Mestre beat Delta Porto Tolle 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle).