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Delta Porto Tolle vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
0 – 1
Chions
Chions
F. Dal Compare 9'
2/9/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 26Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle43%
×Draw25%
Chions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.56
Chions
1.33

Delta Porto Tolle creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Chions
1.84

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
67%
Delta Porto Tolle or Chions
75%
Draw or Chions
57%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
21%
Chions wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
79%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
46%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
21%
Chions 1+ goals
74%
Chions 2+ goals
38%
Chions 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
57%
Chions (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chions attack 1.10 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
43%
level
25%
Chions scores more
33%

Delta Porto Tolle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
F. Dal Compare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delta Porto Tolle vs Chions

Chions beat Delta Porto Tolle 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 9, 2020.

Goals: F. Dal Compare (9').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle).