Delta Porto Tolle 0–4 Arzignano Valchiampo

Delta Porto Tolle

FT

0 – 4

Arzignano Valchiampo

S. Fyda 85', 70'

V. Cali 44'

A. Pasqualino 32'

10/17/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle25%

×Draw23%

Arzignano Valchiampo52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delta Porto TolleExpected goals in this matchArzignano Valchiampo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.81

Delta Porto Tolle

1.18

Arzignano Valchiampo

1.81

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

2.06

1.55

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle

1.29

Arzignano Valchiampo

2.06

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle

1.55

Arzignano Valchiampo

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw

48%

Delta Porto Tolle or Arzignano Valchiampo

77%

Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo

75%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

10%

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

69%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

33%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

12%

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals

84%

Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals

54%

Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

32%

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

25%

level

23%

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more

52%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

A. Pasqualino

44'

V. Cali

70'

S. Fyda

85'

S. Fyda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff