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Delta Porto Tolle vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
PST
13:00
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
4/26/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 37Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle35%
×Draw26%
Ambrosiana39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.27
Ambrosiana
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
61%
Delta Porto Tolle or Ambrosiana
74%
Draw or Ambrosiana
65%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
15%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
72%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
36%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
14%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
74%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
39%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
47%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
35%
level
26%
Ambrosiana scores more
39%

Ambrosiana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Delta Porto Tolle face Ambrosiana (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Delta Porto Tolle hosting Ambrosiana. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Delta Porto Tolle host Ambrosiana at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.