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Ambrosiana vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
FT
2 – 1
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
12/15/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 18Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ambrosiana45%
×Draw25%
Delta Porto Tolle31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ambrosiana
1.59
Delta Porto Tolle
1.27

Ambrosiana creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ambrosiana
1.81
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Ambrosiana
1.42
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw
69%
Ambrosiana or Delta Porto Tolle
75%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
55%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+
23%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals
80%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
47%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
21%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
72%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
36%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
59%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.59

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ambrosiana scores more
45%
level
25%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
31%

Ambrosiana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Ambrosiana 2–1 Delta Porto Tolle

Ambrosiana beat Delta Porto Tolle 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella).