Delta Force 0–0 Plateau United: Result & Stats

Delta Force

FT

0 – 0

Plateau United

5/26/2019

NPFL · Round 22Stephen Keshi Stadium (Asaba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Delta Force52%

×Draw33%

Plateau United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delta ForceExpected goals in this matchPlateau United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.43

Delta Force

1.09

Plateau United

0.43

Delta Force creates 153% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 127 away

0.80

creates per match

0.65

0.20

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Delta Force

0.80

Plateau United

0.65

allows per match

Delta Force

0.20

Plateau United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delta Force+0.00on par

Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Force ↓

Plateau United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Delta Force or draw

85%

Delta Force or Plateau United

67%

Draw or Plateau United

48%

Winning margin

Delta Force wins by 2+

22%

Plateau United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Delta Force 1+ goals

66%

Delta Force 2+ goals

30%

Delta Force 3+ goals

10%

Plateau United 1+ goals

35%

Plateau United 2+ goals

7%

Plateau United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Delta Force (draw refunded)

78%

Plateau United (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Force at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Force attack 0.80 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Delta Force defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Delta Force scores more

52%

level

33%

Plateau United scores more

15%

Delta Force at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Delta Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff