Delta Force 1–0 Go Round: Result & Stats | NPFL

Delta Force

FT

1 – 0

Go Round

3/31/2019

NPFL · Round 13Ahmadu Bello Stadium (Kaduna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Delta Force55%

×Draw32%

Go Round13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delta ForceExpected goals in this matchGo Round

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.42

Delta Force

1.18

Go Round

0.42

Delta Force creates 181% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

0.80

creates per match

0.64

0.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Delta Force

0.80

Go Round

0.64

allows per match

Delta Force

0.20

Go Round

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delta Force+0.00on par

Go Round+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Force ↓

Go Round →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Delta Force or draw

87%

Delta Force or Go Round

68%

Draw or Go Round

45%

Winning margin

Delta Force wins by 2+

25%

Go Round wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Delta Force 1+ goals

69%

Delta Force 2+ goals

33%

Delta Force 3+ goals

12%

Go Round 1+ goals

34%

Go Round 2+ goals

7%

Go Round 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Delta Force (draw refunded)

81%

Go Round (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Force at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Go Round away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Force attack 0.80 + Go Round defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Go Round attack 0.64 + Delta Force defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Delta Force scores more

55%

level

32%

Go Round scores more

13%

Delta Force at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Delta Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff