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Dellach im Gailtal vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
FT
5 – 1
Kraig
Kraig
9/1/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 6Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dellach im Gailtal63%
×Draw19%
Kraig19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dellach im Gailtal
2.42
Kraig
1.25

Dellach im Gailtal creates 94% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 63 away

creates per match

Dellach im Gailtal
2.65
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

Dellach im Gailtal
1.45
Kraig
2.19

finishing

Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dellach im Gailtal ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dellach im Gailtal or draw
81%
Dellach im Gailtal or Kraig
81%
Draw or Kraig
37%

Winning margin

Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
41%
Kraig wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
91%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
69%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
43%
Kraig 1+ goals
71%
Kraig 2+ goals
36%
Kraig 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
77%
Kraig (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dellach im Gailtal at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.65 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.42

Kraig attack 1.06 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dellach im Gailtal scores more
63%
level
19%
Kraig scores more
19%

Dellach im Gailtal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Dellach im Gailtal 5–1 Kraig

Dellach im Gailtal beat Kraig 5-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Dellach/Gail in Dellach/Gail.