Delhi FC 1–2 Mohammedan: Result & Stats | I-League

Delhi FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mohammedan

11/10/2023

I-League · Round 4Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Delhi FC28%

×Draw25%

Mohammedan47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delhi FCExpected goals in this matchMohammedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.54

Delhi FC

1.13

Mohammedan

1.54

Mohammedan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

1.17

creates per match

1.37

1.70

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Delhi FC

1.17

Mohammedan

1.37

allows per match

Delhi FC

1.70

Mohammedan

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delhi FC+0.00on par

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delhi FC ↓

Mohammedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Delhi FC or draw

53%

Delhi FC or Mohammedan

75%

Draw or Mohammedan

72%

Winning margin

Delhi FC wins by 2+

11%

Mohammedan wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Delhi FC 1+ goals

68%

Delhi FC 2+ goals

31%

Delhi FC 3+ goals

11%

Mohammedan 1+ goals

79%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

45%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Delhi FC (draw refunded)

37%

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delhi FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delhi FC attack 1.17 + Mohammedan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mohammedan attack 1.37 + Delhi FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Delhi FC scores more

28%

level

25%

Mohammedan scores more

47%

Mohammedan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff