Delfines Del Este 1–2 Vega Real: Result & Stats

Delfines Del Este

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vega Real

E. Dorlus 3'

S. Teofanov 90+3'

R. De La Rosa 19'

5/12/2024

Liga Mayor · Round 5Estadio Parque del Este

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Delfines Del Este39%

×Draw26%

Vega Real36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfines Del EsteExpected goals in this matchVega Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.33

Delfines Del Este

1.40

Vega Real

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

1.37

creates per match

0.99

1.67

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Delfines Del Este

1.37

Vega Real

0.99

allows per match

Delfines Del Este

1.67

Vega Real

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfines Del Este ↓

Vega Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Delfines Del Este or draw

64%

Delfines Del Este or Vega Real

74%

Draw or Vega Real

61%

Winning margin

Delfines Del Este wins by 2+

18%

Vega Real wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Delfines Del Este 1+ goals

75%

Delfines Del Este 2+ goals

41%

Delfines Del Este 3+ goals

17%

Vega Real 1+ goals

74%

Vega Real 2+ goals

38%

Vega Real 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)

52%

Vega Real (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfines Del Este at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 60 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfines Del Este attack 1.37 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Delfines Del Este scores more

39%

level

26%

Vega Real scores more

36%

Delfines Del Este at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Delfines Del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

E. Dorlus

19'

R. De La Rosa

90+3'

S. Teofanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff