Delfines Del Este 2–2 Atlántico: Result & Stats

Delfines Del Este

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atlántico

8/14/2024

Liga Mayor · Championship Round - 2Estadio Parque del Este

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Delfines Del Este38%

×Draw25%

Atlántico37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfines Del EsteExpected goals in this matchAtlántico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.42

Delfines Del Este

1.43

Atlántico

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 50 away

1.37

creates per match

1.18

1.67

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Delfines Del Este

1.37

Atlántico

1.18

allows per match

Delfines Del Este

1.67

Atlántico

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Atlántico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfines Del Este ↓

Atlántico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Delfines Del Este or draw

63%

Delfines Del Este or Atlántico

75%

Draw or Atlántico

62%

Winning margin

Delfines Del Este wins by 2+

18%

Atlántico wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Delfines Del Este 1+ goals

76%

Delfines Del Este 2+ goals

42%

Delfines Del Este 3+ goals

17%

Atlántico 1+ goals

76%

Atlántico 2+ goals

41%

Atlántico 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)

50%

Atlántico (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfines Del Este at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 60 matches

Atlántico away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.48 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfines Del Este attack 1.37 + Atlántico defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atlántico attack 1.18 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delfines Del Este scores more

38%

level

25%

Atlántico scores more

37%

Delfines Del Este at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delfines Del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff