Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 117+ matches
Delfin SC52%
Mushuc Runa SC23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Delfin SC creates 65% more chances
Season form · 131 home / 117 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Delfin SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Delfin SC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 131 matches
Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Delfin SC attack 1.37 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60
Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Delfin SC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Delfin SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FCDelfin SC
LibertadMushuc Runa SC
Emelec
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
Orense SC
Deportivo CuencaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Delfin SC host Mushuc Runa SC on Sunday, 15 June 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Delfin SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SC
Delfin SC beat Mushuc Runa SC 3-1 in Liga Pro on June 15, 2025.
Goals: C. A. Cuero Q. (36'), C. Orejuela (65' pen), E. Mendoza (87'), H. Batalla (90').
Delfin SC controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.