Delfin SC 2–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Delfin SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

LDU de Quito

Robert Burbano 48'

Roberto Ordóñez 6'

Rodrigo Aguirre 2'

5/12/2019

Liga Pro · Round 13Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Delfin SC38%

×Draw27%

LDU de Quito35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfin SCExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

Delfin SC

1.25

LDU de Quito

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 136 away

1.35

creates per match

1.37

0.98

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Delfin SC

1.35

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Delfin SC

0.98

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw

65%

Delfin SC or LDU de Quito

73%

Draw or LDU de Quito

62%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+

17%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals

71%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

36%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

13%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

69%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

33%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

52%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.98 · 129 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.35 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Delfin SC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delfin SC scores more

38%

level

27%

LDU de Quito scores more

35%

Delfin SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Rodrigo Aguirre↳ José Ayoví

6'

Roberto Ordóñez↳ Robert Burbano

29'

Roberto Ordóñez

31'

Anderson Julio

38'

Anibal Chalá

48'

Robert Burbano↳ Sergio Lopez

54'

Roberto Ordóñez

54'

Roberto Ordóñez

58'

Sergio Lopez

60'

Cristian Martínez← Jacob Murillo

67'

Francisco Mera← Sergio Lopez

71'

Juan Anangonó← Carlos Rodriguez

80'

Edison Realpe

85'

Adolfo Muñoz← Anderson Julio

87'

Juan Diego Rojas Caicedo← Francisco Mera

89'

Edison Realpe

89'

Edison Realpe

90'

Rodrigo Aguirre

90'

David Alejandro Noboa← Robert Burbano

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DelfinLDU

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots7

4Corners3

27Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target5

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

27Fouls21

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides0