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Delfin SC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
11/30/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Placement Group - 7Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Delfin SC43%
×Draw27%
Emelec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.35
Emelec
1.08

Delfin SC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.38
Emelec
1.17

allows per match

Delfin SC
1.00
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
70%
Delfin SC or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
57%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
20%
Emelec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
74%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
39%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
15%
Emelec 1+ goals
66%
Emelec 2+ goals
29%
Emelec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
59%
Emelec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.38 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Emelec attack 1.17 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Delfin SC scores more
43%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
30%

Delfin SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Delfin SC 0–1 Emelec

Emelec beat Delfin SC 1-0 in Liga Pro on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.