Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Delémont vs St. Gallen II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Delémont
Delémont
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
St. Gallen II
St. Gallen II
8/5/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 1Stade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Delémont47%
×Draw21%
St. Gallen II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
2.04
St. Gallen II
1.66

Delémont creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Delémont
1.71
St. Gallen II
1.73

allows per match

Delémont
1.59
St. Gallen II
2.36

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

St. Gallen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
68%
Delémont or St. Gallen II
79%
Draw or St. Gallen II
53%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
27%
St. Gallen II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
87%
Delémont 2+ goals
60%
Delémont 3+ goals
33%
St. Gallen II 1+ goals
81%
St. Gallen II 2+ goals
49%
St. Gallen II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
59%
St. Gallen II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 1.71 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.04

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Delémont defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Delémont scores more
47%
level
21%
St. Gallen II scores more
32%

Delémont at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Delémont will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Delémont 2–1 St. Gallen II

Delémont beat St. Gallen II 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.