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Delémont vs Servette FC — Schweizer Cup 2019

Delémont
Delémont
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Servette FC
Servette FCadvanced
2/28/2024Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Quarter-finalsStade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Delémont8%
×Draw13%
Servette FC79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
0.78
Servette FC
2.83

Servette FC creates 263% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Delémont
0.75
Servette FC
3.41

allows per match

Delémont
2.25
Servette FC
0.82

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
Servette FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
21%
Delémont or Servette FC
87%
Draw or Servette FC
92%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
2%
Servette FC wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
54%
Delémont 2+ goals
18%
Delémont 3+ goals
4%
Servette FC 1+ goals
94%
Servette FC 2+ goals
77%
Servette FC 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
9%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Servette FC away — creates 3.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 0.75 + Servette FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Servette FC attack 3.41 + Delémont defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Delémont scores more
8%
level
13%
Servette FC scores more
79%

Servette FC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delémont vs Servette FC

Servette FC beat Delémont 2-0 in Schweizer Cup on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.