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Delémont vs Paradiso — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Delémont
Delémont
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paradiso
Paradiso
2/18/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 19Stade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Delémont42%
×Draw25%
Paradiso33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
1.52
Paradiso
1.31

Delémont creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Delémont
1.71
Paradiso
1.02

allows per match

Delémont
1.59
Paradiso
1.33

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
Paradiso+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

Paradiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
67%
Delémont or Paradiso
75%
Draw or Paradiso
58%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
21%
Paradiso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
78%
Delémont 2+ goals
45%
Delémont 3+ goals
20%
Paradiso 1+ goals
73%
Paradiso 2+ goals
38%
Paradiso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
56%
Paradiso (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Paradiso away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 1.71 + Paradiso defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Paradiso attack 1.02 + Delémont defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Delémont scores more
42%
level
25%
Paradiso scores more
33%

Delémont at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Delémont will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Delémont 1–1 Paradiso

Delémont and Paradiso drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.