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Delémont vs Köniz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Delémont
Delémont
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Köniz
Köniz
11/27/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Delémont51%
×Draw22%
Köniz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
1.95
Köniz
1.35

Delémont creates 44% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 43 away

creates per match

Delémont
2.22
Köniz
1.35

allows per match

Delémont
1.36
Köniz
1.67

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
73%
Delémont or Köniz
78%
Draw or Köniz
49%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
29%
Köniz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
86%
Delémont 2+ goals
58%
Delémont 3+ goals
31%
Köniz 1+ goals
74%
Köniz 2+ goals
39%
Köniz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
66%
Köniz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 2.22 + Köniz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Köniz attack 1.35 + Delémont defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Delémont scores more
51%
level
22%
Köniz scores more
27%

Delémont at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Delémont will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Delémont 3–0 Köniz

Delémont beat Köniz 3-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.