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Delémont vs FC Luzern — Schweizer Cup 2019

Delémont
Delémontadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
11/1/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Round of 16Stade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Delémont7%
×Draw15%
FC Luzern77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
0.60
FC Luzern
2.42

FC Luzern creates 303% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Delémont
0.75
FC Luzern
2.60

allows per match

Delémont
2.25
FC Luzern
0.45

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
FC Luzern+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–312%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
23%
Delémont or FC Luzern
85%
Draw or FC Luzern
93%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
2%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
45%
Delémont 2+ goals
12%
Delémont 3+ goals
2%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
91%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
69%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
9%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 0.75 + FC Luzern defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.60

FC Luzern attack 2.60 + Delémont defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Delémont scores more
7%
level
15%
FC Luzern scores more
77%

FC Luzern at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delémont vs FC Luzern

Delémont beat FC Luzern 1-0 in Schweizer Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.