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Delémont vs Bulle — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Delémont
Delémont
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bulle
Bulle
4/19/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 29Stade de La Blancherie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Delémont44%
×Draw23%
Bulle33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delémont
1.73
Bulle
1.48

Delémont creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Delémont
1.71
Bulle
1.37

allows per match

Delémont
1.59
Bulle
1.76

finishing

Delémont+0.00on par
Bulle+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delémont ↓

Bulle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Delémont or draw
67%
Delémont or Bulle
77%
Draw or Bulle
56%

Winning margin

Delémont wins by 2+
23%
Bulle wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Delémont 1+ goals
82%
Delémont 2+ goals
52%
Delémont 3+ goals
25%
Bulle 1+ goals
77%
Bulle 2+ goals
43%
Bulle 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Delémont (draw refunded)
57%
Bulle (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delémont at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Bulle away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delémont attack 1.71 + Bulle defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bulle attack 1.37 + Delémont defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Delémont scores more
44%
level
23%
Bulle scores more
33%

Delémont at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Delémont will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Delémont 1–1 Bulle

Delémont and Bulle drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de La Blancherie in Delémont.