Delbrücker SC 2–3 Sportfreunde Lotte

Delbrücker SC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sportfreunde Lotte

9/9/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC30%

×Draw24%

Sportfreunde Lotte46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delbrücker SCExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Lotte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.71

Delbrücker SC

1.33

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.71

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.35

creates per match

2.00

1.41

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Delbrücker SC

1.35

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.00

allows per match

Delbrücker SC

1.41

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw

54%

Delbrücker SC or Sportfreunde Lotte

76%

Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte

70%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

13%

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

74%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

38%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

15%

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

82%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

51%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

39%

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more

30%

level

24%

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

46%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff