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Delbrücker SC vs Schermbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Schermbeck
Schermbeck
5/14/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC40%
×Draw24%
Schermbeck36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delbrücker SC
1.54
Schermbeck
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

creates per match

Delbrücker SC
1.35
Schermbeck
1.51

allows per match

Delbrücker SC
1.41
Schermbeck
1.72

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par
Schermbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Schermbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw
64%
Delbrücker SC or Schermbeck
76%
Draw or Schermbeck
60%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
19%
Schermbeck wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
79%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
45%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
20%
Schermbeck 1+ goals
77%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
43%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
52%
Schermbeck (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Schermbeck away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.72 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Schermbeck defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Schermbeck attack 1.51 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more
40%
level
24%
Schermbeck scores more
36%

Delbrücker SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Delbrücker SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Delbrücker SC 0–1 Schermbeck

Schermbeck beat Delbrücker SC 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at AM-Stadion in Delbrück.