Delbrücker SC 0–1 Preußen Münster II

Delbrücker SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Preußen Münster II

12/4/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC35%

×Draw24%

Preußen Münster II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delbrücker SCExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.56

Delbrücker SC

1.43

Preußen Münster II

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

1.35

creates per match

1.72

1.41

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Delbrücker SC

1.35

Preußen Münster II

1.72

allows per match

Delbrücker SC

1.41

Preußen Münster II

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Preußen Münster II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw

59%

Delbrücker SC or Preußen Münster II

76%

Draw or Preußen Münster II

65%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

16%

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

76%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

42%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

17%

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals

79%

Preußen Münster II 2+ goals

46%

Preußen Münster II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

46%

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more

35%

level

24%

Preußen Münster II scores more

41%

Preußen Münster II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff