Delbrücker SC 1–3 Paderborn II: Result & Stats

Delbrücker SC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Paderborn II

9/23/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC30%

×Draw23%

Paderborn II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delbrücker SCExpected goals in this matchPaderborn II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.75

Delbrücker SC

1.36

Paderborn II

1.75

Paderborn II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

2.09

1.41

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Delbrücker SC

1.35

Paderborn II

2.09

allows per match

Delbrücker SC

1.41

Paderborn II

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Paderborn II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw

53%

Delbrücker SC or Paderborn II

77%

Draw or Paderborn II

70%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

13%

Paderborn II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

74%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

39%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

16%

Paderborn II 1+ goals

83%

Paderborn II 2+ goals

52%

Paderborn II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

39%

Paderborn II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Paderborn II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Paderborn II attack 2.09 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more

30%

level

23%

Paderborn II scores more

47%

Paderborn II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff