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Sport & Leisure Swifts vs Newington Youth — League #561 2026

Sport & Leisure Swifts
Sport & Leisure Swifts
FT
1 – 1
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
4/21/2018League #561League #561 · Relegation Round - 1Glen Road Heights

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sport & Leisure Swifts33%
×Draw21%
Newington Youth45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport & Leisure Swifts
1.73
Newington Youth
2.04

Newington Youth creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sport & Leisure Swifts
1.80
Newington Youth
1.88

allows per match

Sport & Leisure Swifts
2.20
Newington Youth
1.65

finishing

Sport & Leisure Swifts+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport & Leisure Swifts ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sport & Leisure Swifts or draw
55%
Sport & Leisure Swifts or Newington Youth
79%
Draw or Newington Youth
67%

Winning margin

Sport & Leisure Swifts wins by 2+
17%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sport & Leisure Swifts 1+ goals
82%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 2+ goals
52%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 3+ goals
25%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
87%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
60%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sport & Leisure Swifts (draw refunded)
42%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport & Leisure Swifts at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport & Leisure Swifts attack 1.80 + Newington Youth defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Newington Youth attack 1.88 + Sport & Leisure Swifts defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sport & Leisure Swifts scores more
33%
level
21%
Newington Youth scores more
45%

Newington Youth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport & Leisure Swifts vs Newington Youth

Sport & Leisure Swifts and Newington Youth drew 1-1 in League #561 on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Glen Road Heights in Belfast.